泰國出口業近十年朝多樣化發展泰國資深經濟學家認為,泰國出口業自2000年後對美國及歐盟經濟的依賴度已大幅降低,2000年出口至美國及歐盟之比率分別為21.3%及16.3%,至2010年萎縮至10.3%及11.2%。而出口至東南亞國協(ASEAN)五市場、中國大陸及中東則分別由2000年的19.3%、4.1%及3%,成長至2010年的為22.7%、11%及4.9%。製造業製程越形複雜,對國際供應鏈的依賴度租房子亦漸深,由今年3月日本爆發地震及海嘯事件可見國際供應鏈崩盤實不利於全球及區域性貿易。因此泰國經濟學家審閱間接貿易之關連性,以評估成長緩慢的美國及中國大陸(G-2)對泰國出口業的影響。結果發現,將間接貿易連結因子納入計算後,G-2經濟表現由2000年的43.6%暴跌至2009年的28.6%,可見G-2經濟規模雖大仍持續下跌。而不受間接相關因子牽動的泰國出口業,則因與租房子ASEAN新興市場、中國大陸、中東間的貿易連結急速增加反朝多樣化發展。泰國(28.6%)對G-2市場的總貿易表現不若印尼(33.7%)及菲律賓依賴之深;對美國及歐盟市場佔總出口四成的菲律賓則為ASEAN五國之首。受到G-2緩慢成長衝擊最大的應屬泰國精品;其中以逾五成銷往G-2市場的成衣、服裝配飾及冷凍蝦衝擊最為嚴重;預料對鏡片、罐裝及加工水產品、電子儀器、無線電及電婚禮佈置視接收器、橡膠製品、電腦及零件等衝擊不大。(摘譯自INFOFISH Trade News, No. 16/2011,29 August 2011) GREATER EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION OVER THE LAST DECADEThai exporters had become less dependent on the economies of the United States and the EuropeanUnion since 2000, a senior economist of Tisco Securities reported. Exports to the US 烤肉accounted foronly 10.3% of Thailand's exports in 2010, compared with 21.3% in 2000, while the portion ofexports to the EU had shrunk from 16.3% to 11.2%.Meanwhile, five markets in Asean accounted for 22.7%, China 11%, and the Middle East 4.9% oftotal exports in 2010, a substantial increase from 19.3, 4.1 and 3% respectively a decade 21世紀房屋仲介ago.Manufacturing has become a more complex process and is highly dependent on international supplychains. The tsunami and the earthquake in Japan in March illustrated how disruptions in theinternational supply chain can adversely impact global and regional trade.Therefore, Tisco Securities has examined indirect trade linkages to gauge 酒店工作how sluggish growth in theG-2 (the US and China) would affect Thai exports.Exposure to G-2 economies is sizeable but falling. The analysis found that in 2009, when indirectlinkages were factored in, total exposure to the G-2 was 28.6%, a dramatic drop from 43.6% in2000.A positive trend from the analysis is that even with indirect G2000exposure factored in, Thai exports havebecome more diversified. This is because of a sharp increase in trade linkages between Thailand andnew markets in Asean, China and the Middle East.Compared with Indonesia and the Philippines, Thailand is less dependent on G-2 markets. The totaltrade exposure to G-2 markets for Indonesia was 33.7%, 酒店兼職compared with Thailand's 28.6%.Moreover, of the five major Asean countries, the Philippines has the largest exposure to the US andEU markets, accounting for about 40% of its total exports.Selected Thai products, however, would be the most affected by sluggish growth in the G-2. Withmore than 50% of their exports going to G-2 烤肉食材markets, apparel, clothing accessories and frozenshrimp would be the most affected. A moderate impact is anticipated for lenses, canned andprocessed seafood, electrical equipment, radio and television receivers, rubber products, computersand parts.


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